Mortality risk from COVID-19
The constant portrayal of COVID-19 as a threat has caused distortion in people’s perception of their risk of dying from it, if they are unlucky enough to catch it. The risks of dying are dependent on age and comorbidities, e.g.:
| Healthy 35-year-old woman | If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.9991% The chance of dying is less than the fatality risk of a general anaesthetic for a procedure |
| 55-year-old man with co-morbidities* | If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.2135% The chance of dying is less than the risk of an average 55-64 year old dying of any cause this year |
| Healthy 75-year-old woman | If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 99.8251% The chance of dying is less than the risk of being injured in a car accident each year |
| 85 year old man with co-morbidities* | If unlucky enough to catch coronavirus, chance of surviving = 79.9154% The chance of dying is less than the risk of living for one year in a care home |
This data will be an overestimate as it comes from table 1 of this study published in August 2020. The study estimated an overall infection fatality rate in Western Europe to be over 1% and even Professor Neil Fergurson agrees that it is more like 0.8% with WHO estimates now substantially lower than that.
You can calculate your own risk of a fatal infection using the Oxford University QCovid calculator, although it is worth bearing in mind that these figures were based on the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the spring 2020 peak, and test positivity rates in England are now just 4% of that level. Therefore results from this calculator are likely to be higher than the actual current risk.
No-one can die of COVID-19 without catching the virus. The chances of catching it currently are minimal as there are so few genuine cases (in other words, people with symptoms, usually severe). Even after testing millions of school children and surge testing in certain London boroughs the test positivity remains stubbornly low.
Deaths are now at levels last seen in July. Due to the lag time between infection and death, reported figures on mortality do not indicate current infection rates but rather reflect the situation at least three weeks prior to this. The exceptionally low daily deaths we are now experiencing reflect the lack of emergency. Despite this, only 15 people are currently allowed to attend a wake and the Queen had to sit alone during her husband’s funeral service, whilst professional football players can celebrate goals with displays of enthusiastic hugging and embracing.
There is no evidence that any variant is more deadly. Papers, that have been picked up by the press and that suggest otherwise have not accounted for underlying morbidities which we know have a significant…
Read full story here: Article Source: 22 April 2021 – HART